The Road to Earthquake Safety

We would all be better prepared for earthquakes if we knew when the next one was coming. However, unlike the storm front that must travel to you before rain can begin, there are usually no warning signs for earthquakes. We currently have no scientifically verifiable way to predict earthquakes. Taking the time to secure your home and office, and being prepared are key to surviving and being able to mentally cope with such an "instantaneous" event.

Even though we cannot predict the time of the next earthquake, science can help us live safely with earthquakes. The road to earthquake safety follows many steps. First, we must estimate what size earthquakes are likely to occur (geology). Given those earthquakes, we then estimate what the shaking will be (seismology). Given that shaking, we estimate the response of different kinds of buildings (earthquake engineering). Only with all these steps completed can we take the steps as a society to enact building codes and retrofitting programs to make our community safer.

Before we had radar to see an approaching storm front, we could look at the historical record and see that rain was likely at certain times of the year. We also recognized that the larger storms caused flash floods, particularly in the bottom of canyons. In the same way, we can analyze our average rate of earthquakes, what the effect of those earthquakes will be, and where the safest places to build are.

For instance, the earthquake record in Nevada tells us to expect an average of approximately three to four earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater every century. From that, we can calculate the probability of having another major quake in any given period of time. Knowing that such an earthquake is likely, we use our knowledge of the fault locations and the soil conditions to estimate the likely patterns of shaking. We describe this shaking by its frequency content, intensity, and duration. Understanding what kind of shaking can be expected, we can use our knowledge of the behavior of buildings and their contents to estimate the probable damage. News reports after earthquakes often dwell on what surprised the scientists because what is new is news. However, the damage from most earthquakes is not a great surprise.

Much of the damage in earthquakes is predictable and preventable. We must all come together in our communities to apply our knowledge to building codes, hazard hunts, and neighborhood and family emergency plans. Many of the safety measures taken for earthquakes will help prevent other accidents or damage from other natural hazards as well. After your house and its contents are secured, being earthquake ready consists of knowing what to do during an earthquake and maintaining earthquake plans and earthquake kits. You will be well on the road to earthquake safety.

What must be done immediately is personal preparedness. Know your potential safety spots at home, work, and school; talk to your kids about earthquake safety; make an earthquake plan (use the following pages); remove or secure nonstructural hazards that immediately threaten you, your loved ones, your friends, or your customers. Action on all our parts can put the odds of surviving an earthquake with minimal losses in our favor.

Seismic strenghtening of bridges in western Nevada